Driver-based forecast linking ops decisions to cash.
October: lock the model version that becomes the operating plan.
Refreshes on the 1st of every month
Tag and lock the version that becomes the company plan. From here on, every variance gets compared to this version — not to a moving target.
The best models forecast 8-12 drivers — not 400 line items. Pick drivers that someone in the business owns and can move.
| Industry | Top revenue drivers |
|---|---|
| Services | Billable hours × bill rate × utilization × headcount |
| SaaS | New ARR, gross retention, net retention, ARPU |
| Distribution | Active customers × avg order × order frequency |
| Manufacturing | Units sold × ASP × mix |
| Construction / project | Backlog × burn rate × win rate on bids |
The three statements link through specific anchors. If your model doesn't roll forward cleanly, one of these is broken.
Don't build 9 scenarios. Build 3 that tie to real decisions.
| Scenario | Driver delta | Decision it informs |
|---|---|---|
| Base | Plan | Operating budget, hiring plan |
| Downside | Revenue -15%, GM -200 bps | Covenant headroom, hiring freeze trigger |
| Specific upside | New product/market modeled | Capital allocation for that bet |