Playbook12 min readFocus · June

13-Week Cash Flow Forecast

A working model and the weekly ritual that keeps it honest.

Focus for June

Mid-year truth-up

June is your honest checkpoint — what's the model gotten right and wrong so far?

Refreshes on the 1st of every month

Compare every week of the YTD forecast against actuals. Where you missed by more than 10%, ask why once and again. Patterns hide in the misses, not the matches.

Color-code every week's variance: green/yellow/red
Write one sentence per red week
Adjust assumptions for H2 based on the misses
Share the truth-up with your bookkeeper or CPA

Why 13 weeks

Far enough out to see the cliff, close enough to actually do something about it.

Most owner-operator failures aren't bad businesses — they're cash-timing surprises. A rolling 13-week forecast turns surprises into decisions you make on Monday morning instead of crises you react to on Friday afternoon.

What to model — line by line

Be specific. 'Other expenses: $5,000' is where forecasts go to die.

Build your weekly model with these rows. Most fit on a single screen.

Row	Source	Notes
Starting cash	Bank balance Monday AM	All operating accounts combined
Receipts — by customer	AR aging + booked deals	List top 10 customers individually
Other receipts	Refunds, deposits, financing draws	Anything non-customer
Payroll	Run dates, not pay-period end	Include employer taxes
Recurring AP	Rent, software, insurance, utilities	Group by week paid
Variable AP	COGS, subcontractors, project costs	Tie to revenue if possible
Sales tax / 941	Filing calendar	These ruin forecasts when missed
Owner draws / distributions	Your policy	Treat like a fixed cost
Debt service	Loan amortization	Principal + interest separately
Ending cash	Calculated	This is the number that matters

The weekly ritual

The discipline is the point — not the spreadsheet.

Every Monday morning, roll the model forward one week (drop last week, add a new week 13).
Update starting cash to today's actual bank balance.
Compare last week's forecast to actuals. Calculate variance for receipts and AP separately.
Any variance over 10% gets a one-sentence written reason in the model.
Update the next 4 weeks based on what you learned. Don't re-touch weeks 5-13 unless something material changed.
Send a 3-line summary to your bookkeeper or controller: cash today, cash 4 weeks out, biggest risk.

Using it with your bank

Bankers fund forecasts they trust, not stories they hope for. Bring this model to every line-of-credit conversation.

Show 8 weeks of forecast-vs-actual history (proves the model works)
Highlight the trough week and what you do about it
Tie the line-of-credit ask to a specific gap in a specific week
Show how the line gets paid down within the 13-week window

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